The Relegation Bet

Occasionally the pessimism that I hold towards my football club, Hull City AFC, bodes well for me.

The day before we sold Bowen, I checked the odds of us being relegated. I didn’t believe that we would at the time, but when I saw odds of 250-1, I think we had around 37 points then and I knew teams had been relegated with 50+ points before, I concluded that there was probably a higher than 1 in 250 chance of us being relegated.

So I stuck a fiver on.

I still didn’t especially expect us to end up in a relegation battle, and then when it became increasingly obvious that we would, I found myself in a moral dilemma – misery from watching just how bad we had become, fear of what will become of us in League One – yet the thought of an extra holiday. It isn’t a comfortable feeling knowing that you will profit from your football team’s relegation.

Of course, there is the dream scenario that we end up losing the next 4 games, the bookies offer me a healthy cashout which I take, then we win the last 5 games in a row and stay up. Win-win, you could say.

The bookies offering a cashout is another dilemma. Take the profit and be able to afford a cheap Ryanair weekend in Budapest, or hang on and possibly be able to afford a week in Barbados?

Are we more likely to stay up now? My exceptionally unscientific poll of 77 fans suggests that we are:

Though this was before the bombshell announcement this week confirming our status as the best-run club in the Championship, with Irvine and co refusing to sign extended contracts – not that I blame them.

Prior to the pause, our main problem was in defence. With Burke and De Wijs in central defence, I’d hope that we’d not concede 4 goals every game. Alas being without Lichaj on the right side will be an issue – I’m not confident in Pennington playing there…or anywhere. Neither do I believe that Long is an especially good goalkeeper.

Yet I’m hoping that we will be less frail defensively.

I feel like I will shortly be breaking into cliches but we’ll possibly know our fate after today. Scrap to victory and that will put us 5 points ahead of Charlton – it could even take us to 18th.

Lose, and we are more likely to be relegated than not. A fate which is coming anyway, whether it happens this season or next, for that is what Saint Ehab is preparing Hull City AFC for.

Today’s game really is that important. And I have absolutely no idea what the result will be.

As for my bet, I’ve part cashed-out, taken £85 from 20% of the bet, and left the rest in there. So if we stay up, I’m £85 richer (which is the most I’ve ever won on a football bet), and if we do get relegated then I will still be going to Barbados next year…and Bristol Rovers.

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